Jim Rogers: dolar, frank i rolnictwo (video)

Przedstawiam najnowszy wywiad z Jimem Rogersem, inwestycyjnym guru. Mądrego przyjemnie posłuchać. Poniżej najważniejsze punkty/wnioski z rozmowy, wywiad video z CNBC oraz zapis wywiadu w języku angielskim (jako że jakość dźwięku jest słaba).

  • Napięcia handlowe między Brazylią, Chinami a Europą mogą prowadzić do wojny handlowej, tak jak to miało miejsce w 1930 roku i później. Brazylia zaskoczyła rynki, a przede wszystkim swoich największych partnerów handlowych Koreę i Chiny, 30-procentową podwyżką ceł na samochody z Chin, a nieco wcześniej na niektóre produkty ze stali.
  • Trzymam dolara, bo wierzę że jego kurs pójdzie wyżej. Dlatego trzymam go w przeciwieństwie do innych ważniejszych walut. Dolar zyskuje na wartości względem reala, euro i wszystkiego innego. Jest kilka powodów ku temu, jednym z nich jest panika i z jakiegoś powodu ludzie pędzą ku dolarowi. Dolar to nie bezpieczna przystań, ale i tak trzymam go w portfelu.”
  • Na pytanie, w co by zainwestował odpowiada: „Obecnie kupowałbym wyłącznie dolara, franka szwajcarskiego i inwestował w rolnictwo. Ceny w rolnictwie mają obecnie swoje pięć minut„.
  • Chiny próbują od kilku lat ochłodzić swoją gospodarkę. Podnieśli stopy procentowa sześć razy. Starają się jak mogą by ochłodzić gospodarkę i oczekuję kontynuacji tego, co z kolei spowoduje globalne spowolnienie. Poważne problemy przychodzą jednak z Zachodu, Europy i USA, które są w znacznie gorszej kondycji niż w 2008 roku, ponieważ ich dług eksplodował. Dług USA wzrósł czterokrotnie od tamtego czasu.

Silver, copper, as you see it even gold as I mentioned earlier getting hit very hard today amid the global derisking. Of course worries about recession. No one better to discuss this selloff than legendary global investor Jim Rogers, chairman and CEO of Rogers’s holdings. Also author of a „Gift to my children”” and he joins us this time from Salzburg, Austria as opposed to Paris, France. It is nice to be Mr. Rogers. Jim, let’s get right to it in commodities. Why the selloff and what are your expectations?

Everything is being killed right now, as you can see. Partly as you may know Brazil has sort of ignited a trade war and then put on big tariffs with the people in Asia and right now China’s trying to get the Europeans to let them open up the trade with China more and the Europeans are saying ‚no’. So China is saying ‚no’. We won’t bail you out. So there are all sorts of trade tensions developing. Not a good world.

No it’s not. You know, interesting you bring up Brazil. Of course we — earlier we mentioned real. What is the takeaway in terms of the so-called trade war you just mentioned? How important ultimately is that going to become?

Well, I hope to tell you war doesn’t break out, you know, throughout history when you’ve had trade wars it’s caused depression. You saw what happened in 1930. It led to depression. Ultimately it led to war. So I hope it can be contained. I was very surprised to see Brazil do that. One of their largest trading partners is China and Korea and yet they certainly hit China and Korea with 30% tariff increases. It’s not fun and the real of course are down sharply as well.

You know, in terms of currencies here, we’re also seeing a backup almost across the board except of course for the US dollar. Last time, you were with us, you talked about the dollar perhaps being a short-term buy. You still think so?

Well, I own the dollar. As we talked last time, and I think the dollar is going to go higher. At least I hope it is. That’s why I own it against major currencies. It’s going up against real, going up against the euro, up against everything right now. There are various reasons for that one of which is everybody is panicked and for some reason they are rushing into the U.S. dollar. The U.S. dollar is not a safe haven if you ask me, but I do own it.

Jim, that is what i wanted to ask you. You’re not running up a flight of stairs. You sound like you just ran up a flight of stairs. You’re okay, right?

I had to run over and turn off my TV and computer and all kinds of things. All right. It was interfering with the broadcast.

So many viewers want to find a safe haven right now. If you wanted to park some money and just wanted to be safe what would you do?

Well, right now I would only have the U.S. dollar or Swiss franc if I were putting new money to work, or agriculture. Agriculture prices are getting banged right now. Contemplating buying Swiss francs, more dollars, and agriculture.

Looking at the losses in copper today, Jim, of course concern about the Chinese economy. Do you share that concern? Or is this overdone today?

China has been trying to cool this economy off for a couple years. They raised interest rates six times, raised reserve requirements a dozen times. They’re doing their best to cool things off. So no, they want to cool it off. I expect them to continue to do it and that is causing more slowdown around the world. The major problems are coming from the West, from Europe and the U.S. we’re much worse off than we were in 2008, because the debt has gone through the roof since 2008. At least in 2008 there was a possibility that governments could bail us out. Now of course the governments have gotten deep into debt themselves.

Right. Of course we moved a loft – a loft the debt from private hands to public hands. Are you talking largely about Europe when you say that, Jim?

About the U.S., too. The U.S. government quadrupled its debt in that period of time. When you take into consideration the thing which the off balance sheet guarantees, you know, they took Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac’s off balance sheet derivatives positions. Those are trillions of dollars. No, the U.S. government is in much worse shape, everybody is in much worse shape. All governments around the world. And, you know, pension plans are getting killed with very low interest rates, pension plans have to be funded by somebody. So companies are funding them. States and municipalities have to fund them even more. I mean, this idea of Bernanke’s interest rates, low interest rates are good. He is killing the people, who save and invest and that is really hurting a very, very, very large part of the population.

Jim, we tried to make that point earlier in the program. Let me ask you about Europe and the banks. You’re here. You hear what the banks say. They don’t need capital. The market says they do need capital. You have a good feel on this. What is your read about the European banking system and the need for capital?

It does need capital. They’ve got all these Greek bonds, these Irish bonds, they all need capital. The only solution that will work is, if they can all gather in a room and say, okay. We’re going to have to write off loans. We’ll have to take big losses. You, whatever bank X, you’ll suffer. We’re going to put a ring fence around all of you and support all of you to keep this system alive so that people can take money out of the banks, so checks can clear, etc. But they’re going to be huge losses taken. If they don’t do it now, you know, the market makes them do it in a year or two, David, Gary, and then it’s going to be uncontrolled chaos. Right now you could have controlled default. If you did it now. If you don’t, if you wait a while, it’s going to be uncontrolled default.

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